What to anticipate from the snow event caused by Buffalo Lake

For several counties in Western New York, Lake Effect Snow Warnings start as early as Wednesday night and go through Sunday.

A significant lake effect snow event is becoming more likely for parts of Western New York later this week and over the weekend.

At 7 p.m. on Wednesday, a Lake Effect Snow Warning will be in effect for Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties through 10 p.m. on Thursday. Additionally, a Lake Place Snow Warning will be in effect for southern Erie County starting at 7 p.m. on Wednesday and lasting until 1 a.m. on Saturday. A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect for Genesee and Northern Erie counties from Thursday at 7 p.m. through Sunday at 1 p.m.

From Friday through Sunday, Niagara County is under a Winter Storm Watch. Prior to the arrival of winter storm conditions, this watch will probably turn into some type of winter weather alert.

Starting as early as Wednesday evening and continuing through Sunday evening, several dense lake-effect snow bands might form. It's not impossible that two to three feet of snow might accumulate at this period, seriously affecting travel. This also applies to the greater Buffalo area.

By the end of the week, a favourable weather pattern will emerge that might result in a protracted stretch of chilly air over a warm Lake Erie. With a record-high temperature of 53 degrees achieved on Tuesday, the lake is now fairly warm. Between Thursday and Sunday, many bands of lake effect snow showers might form due to the temperature differential between the warm lake and the cold air, as well as a favourable wind direction aided by various storms moving to the north of Buffalo.

The Southern Tier will experience the beginning of this lake effect snow event on Wednesday night, and between Thursday night and Friday night, a further 5 to 10 inches of snow will fall there.

When a more benevolent wind direction settles over the lake on Thursday night, the lake effect snow band will then start to develop and move north to Buffalo. This is beginning to resemble a classic lake effect, with a belt of extremely heavy snow expected to fall at a pace of two to three inches per hour from Friday through Sunday. With such significant snowfall rates, driving conditions might get quite hazardous.

Depending on where the band performs, snowfall amounts may vary widely by Friday night, but communities around the greater Buffalo region and southern Erie County may receive up to two feet of snow. The lake effect band will then start to lift on Saturday, moving into northern Erie County, Niagara Falls, and Niagara County from south of the city. For places north of the city, Saturday will be the snowiest day; by day's end, up to a foot of snow is likely.

Finally, as Sunday approaches, this system will start to turn back toward the south through Buffalo and the Southtowns, perhaps adding another foot of snow by Sunday night.

Following are the snowfall totals for the Western New York event from Wednesday night to Sunday night:

Southern Tier: The most of the snow fell Wednesday night into Thursday, covering central and southern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties with 5 to 10 inches of snow. There won't be much of an influence on the weekend lake effect event in Allegany County from the 3 to 6 inches of snow that are expected there Wednesday into Thursday. It may snow up to 20 inches in Chautauqua County's lakefront region, on its northernmost point, and in northern Cattaraugus County.

Southern Erie County: If the lake effect snow band that is expected this weekend stays south, this might be the event's focal point. There will be a 2 to 5 inch snowfall there Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with the snowiest days being Friday and Sunday. For this location, snowfall might reach 24 inches or more.

Buffalo: If the band stays put late on Thursday night and into Friday, the city may also be in the event's target area. Therefore, if the lake effect band oscillates from Friday through Sunday, the city will be in the middle. Most certainly, there will be at least one foot of snow in and around the city. Between 20 and 24 inches of snow fell on the city.

Wyoming County: The county will receive an average of 12 to 16 inches of snow, with amounts as high as 20 inches in the far western area. Snowfall totals will decrease from west to east across the county.

Northern Erie County: Given that the lake effect band is probably just beyond of the projected range, this is where things might become complicated. However, a range of 10 to 20 inches is not out of the question for northern Erie County, with the higher totals closer to Buffalo.

Genesee County: Similar to Wyoming County, the county will now see decreasing snow totals from west to east, with an average of 10 to 16 inches of snow and upwards of 20 inches in the far western area.

Niagara and Orleans Counties: This area might receive 10 to 14 inches of snow if the lake effect band moves north on Saturday as many computer models continue to indicate. Snow showers are more likely to simply cut this area, producing 4 to 8 inches at most and 8 to 12 inches at most if the band does not reach that far north.